Four oil price scenarios for FY27 and simulate the macro-financial impact on India
Download ReportSpecial Report A ‘crude’ awakening: Assessing impact of Middle East crisis on India
The escalation of the US-Israel-Iran tripartite conflict has triggered a record high volatility in crude oil prices, with Brent crude swinging from USD 71 pb to above USD 110 pb within ten days before settling near USD 90 pb levels. The Iran controlled Strait of Hormuz — through which ~20% of global energy exports transit — is at the centre of the disruption risk. While India's direct trade exposure to Israel and Iran is modest, the indirect exposure via the Strait of Hormuz is non-trivial. As much as 50-70% of key energy items (crude oil, LPG, and LNG) imported by India passes via the Strait of Hormuz.
We outline four oil price scenarios for FY27 and simulate the macro-financial impact on India.
