India’s CPI inflation came in softer than expected in Sep-25, easing to 1.54%YoY from 2.07% in Aug-25.
Download ReportQuantEco Research | Sep-25 CPI - Yet another soft print
India’s CPI inflation in Sep-25 at 1.54%, yet again fell below 2.0% (i.e., the lower threshold of the inflation target band), with Sep-25 being the lowest level seen in more than 8 years. Sep-25 was testimony to food prices continuing to offer high degree of comfort, despite expectations of excessive monsoon causing escalation in price of perishables in some parts of the country. The impact of GST simplification is likely to come on board materially beginning Oct-25 onwards. With continuous downward surprises in successive CPI inflation readings led by food, the inflation outlook remains extremely benign. We continue to hold on to our FY26 CPI inflation forecast of 2.6%, though attaching a downside risk to it now.