India's CPI inflation held firm at 4.4% YoY in Jul-26, similar to the levels in Jun-26
Download ReportQuantEco Research | CPI Inflation | Jul-26 | Steady now, steeper later
India's CPI inflation held firm at 4.4% YoY in Jul-26, similar to the levels in Jun-26. Under the hood, the composition also remained steady: food and beverages inflation at 5.2% YoY, consolidated fuel inflation at 4.6% YoY, and core inflation at 3.9% YoY. The apparent calm in core owes much to the comfort from the Sep-25 GST rate cut — the statistical impact of which lasts one more month — and the sharp correction in gold and silver prices, even as sectoral price pass-through is already visible in consumer durables, non-durables, and travel and hospitality services. While we expect CPI inflation to remain ranged in Aug-26, the trajectory is likely to steepen thereafter amidst the expectation of rainfall deficit and geopolitical uncertainty, which could keep commodity prices elevated and volatile. We maintain our FY27 CPI inflation forecast of 5.1%, up from 2.1% in FY26.