India’s GDP in Q4 FY23 accelerated with annualized growth of 6.1% YoY, up from 4.5% in Q3.
Download ReportQuantEco Research || Q4 FY23 GDP - Broad-based pick-up
India’s GDP in Q4 FY23 accelerated with annualized growth of 6.1% YoY, up from 4.5% in Q3. Based on the upward revision to past data and significant positive surprise in Q4 print, GDP growth for FY23 is now estimated at 7.2%, higher than the previous estimate of 7.0%. Growth momentum in Q4 appears to indicate a broad-based recovery despite the emergence of global headwinds. Outperformance of services over industry and investments over consumption continue to dominate the overall narrative. Continued easing of drag on account of net exports offers respite. While we continue to expect the underlying strength in investment theme to continue into FY24, services growth could moderate on waning of pent-up demand. Most importantly, FY24 is likely to face the full burden of the anticipated global slowdown and lagged impact of past monetary tightening. In addition, ongoing gradual fiscal consolidation, persistence of geopolitical uncertainty, and likelihood of El Nino related disruption could also cast a moderating influence on economic activity. As such, we stick to our call of FY24 GDP growth of 6.0%.