India’s industrial production growth soared to a 16-month high of 11.7%YoY in Oct-23, validating the resilience in industrial growth momentum so far.
Download ReportQuantEco Research || Oct-23 IIP - Buoyed by base and a festive propeller
India’s IIP double-digit growth was amply supported by the festive season-led push evident in Oct-23 lead indicators and a favorable base, due to shift in the timing of Diwali (in 2023 vs. 2022). As such, on a FYTD basis (Apr-Oct), IIP growth at 6.9% fares much better than the pace of 5.3% over the same period last year.
We expect growth in volume of industrial production in FY24 to moderate somewhat from its FY23 level of 5.3%. However, there is likely to be some support from sharply lower input price inflation for most industries in FY24 compared to FY23. Our GDP growth forecast stands revised higher at 6.5%, after the upward surprise in Q2 FY24 growth outcome.