India’s CPI inflation accelerated to a 3-month high of 4.81% YoY in Jun-23 from 4.31% in May-23.
Download ReportQuantEco Research || Jun-23 CPI - Is inflation heating up?
India’s CPI inflation accelerated to a 3-month high of 4.81% YoY in Jun-23 from 4.31% in May-23. The headline print was backed by a strong sequential momentum, led by a jump in food prices. Barring high inflation in spices, which has sustained for a long period, other pressure points (in case of vegetables, pulses, and cereals) could potentially see some easing in the coming months as rainfall activity turns normal and administrative interventions by the government provide supply relief. Amidst the headline grabbing moves of certain items in the food basket, there is broad comfort on fuel and core inflation. This is likely to provide comfort to MPC and prompt them to look through temporary food price volatility. Overall, we maintain our above consensus FY24 inflation estimate of 5.3% and expect the MPC to remain on an extended pause, through FY24