India’s CPI inflation decelerated to a 97-month low of 1.55% YoY in Jul-25 from 2.10% in Jun-25.
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Aug 12, 2025
QuantEco Research | Jul-25 CPI - Benign food and core inflation
India’s CPI inflation decelerated to a 97-month low of 1.55% YoY in Jul-25 from 2.10% in Jun-25. This marks the sixth consecutive instance of undershooting the 4% target. The food disinflation momentum remains strong amidst satisfactory overall progress of the south-west monsoon season and a restrained MSP hike for kharif crops. In addition, a favorable statistical base effect resulted in a sharp decline in core inflation. We expect the benign trend in food inflation to dominate in the near term despite potential risks from global and domestic factors. As such, we maintain our forecast of FY26 CPI inflation at 3.0%.