India’s 2023 Southwest monsoon season is onto a delayed start. June accounts for only 15-25% of total Kharif season’s sowing, and thus may not bear strong consequences
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India’s 2023 Southwest monsoon season is onto a delayed start. June accounts for only 15-25% of total Kharif season’s sowing, and thus may not bear strong consequences. To be able to compensate for the anticipated shortfall in Jun-23 rainfall and still achieve IMD’s 96% of LPA target for the season, precipitation over Jul-Aug-Sep-23 must be at least 97% of LPA cumulatively. With risk of El Nino enlarging sizably as captured by the nosediving of the recent SOI value, much rests on the development of a positive IOD (to counter El Nino) and/or a late onset of El Nino (Aug-23 and thereafter). We assess the impact if El Nino does become a formidable phenomenon with an earlier than anticipated onset.