Our proprietary DART (Daily Activity and Recovery Tracker) Index for week ending 19th Sep-21 remained little changed compared to last week's level, slipping a tad below the post-pandemic peak.
Download ReportQuantEco DART Index: Economic activity remains nearly flat
DART index holding on to near peak level (i.e., in the post-pandemic phase) for the second consecutive week underscores economic recovery continuing well into the month of Sep-21. The onset of the festive season should continue to offer support into the month of Aug-21, as economic activity reverts to near normal levels. Adding to the optimism and reinforcing the recovery, vaccinations continue to set new records. For the week ending 19th Sep-21, the daily average pace of vaccinations clocked a record 9.2 mn, beating the previous week’s run rate of 8.0 mn. India has inoculated 43.7% with the single dose and fully vaccinated 14.5% of its population. With both Serum Institute expected to add to supplies and Johnson & Johnson shot becoming available Oct-21 onwards, we estimate that nearly 100% of the adult population can get first-dose vaccinated by end of the year.
From growth perspective, premised on the enduring sequential recovery seen up to Sep-21 so far, India’s GDP level is estimated to return to it’s pre-pandemic level in Q3 FY22. The anticipated pent-up demand for goods and vengeance demand for services driven by the vaccination pivot, global growth led export momentum along with accommodative fiscal and monetary policy reinforce our full year growth forecast of 10% with mild downside risks.