India’s Southwest monsoon season (Jun-Sep-22) ended in a surplus of 6% vs. LPA (Long Period Average), to beat India Meteorological Department (IMD’s) forecast of 3% surplus.
Download ReportIndia Monsoon - Surplus but uneven rainfall lends upside risks to food inflation
India’s Southwest monsoon season (Jun-Sep-22) ended in a surplus of 6% vs. LPA (Long Period Average), to beat India Meteorological Department (IMD’s) forecast of 3% surplus. Despite overall rainfall exceeding expectations, the season was marked by significant unevenness. Capturing this unevenness in distribution, our QuantEco Rainfall Index (which is a foodgrain weighted index of rainfall distribution in key agri states) remained in deficit throughout 2022 Southwest monsoon season. A late withdrawal of monsoon along with high level of water in reservoirs (at 111% of last year as of end Sep-22) and continuing La Nina conditions in the Pacific however augur well for 2022-23 Rabi sowing and output. This could perhaps break the weather jinx weighing on output in last 3 consecutive seasons*, and more importantly arrest the trend of rising domestic price of cereals.