QuantEco's DART (Daily Activity and Recovery Tracker) Index for week ending 23rd Jan-22 posted a mild uptick after contracting for three consecutive weeks.
Download ReportDART index: Economic activity mildly recoups losses
QuantEco’s DART (Daily Activity and Recovery Tracker) Index for week ending 23rd Jan-22 posted a mild uptick after contracting for three consecutive weeks. On WoW basis, the index expanded by 2.2% versus a sizeable drop of 5.3% in the previous week (revised down from -4.3%).
The decline in pace of infections notwithstanding, daily confirmed cases in India have topped 3 lakh/day over the last two days (7-DMA basis). This is despite some of the metro cities such as Delhi, Mumbai and Bangalore having begun to see a decisive downtrend in cases. The community spread of infections continues into semi-urban to rural areas now, which remain more vulnerable amidst lower vaccination rates. This perhaps could explain the recent rise in COVID mortality rate.
The latest up move in DART index offers relief, following a sharp setback to economic activity since the onset of the Omicron wave. Recall, over the last three weeks the DART index had contracted by nearly 18% on a cumulative basis; wiping off all post-pandemic gains the index had gradually built since the second wave of infections. This sharp and quick setback perhaps reflects the faster response of the economy to virus upheavals. As the tide of COVID cases turns, the current downtime in economic activity could prove to be short with some states already beginning to unwind restrictions.