QuantEco’s DART (Daily Activity and Recovery Tracker) Index for week ending 20th Mar-22 slipped lower to a level of 125.5, retreating from last week’s post-pandemic high of 128.3. This marks the first weekly decline after a gap of 8 weeks. On a WoW basis, the index declined by 2.2% compared to an upwardly revised increase of 2.7% clocked in the week prior.

The decline in the DART index for the week gone by can primarily be attributed to the holiday on account of Holi, which led to lower personal mobility and movement of both goods and services. We would also like to flag off likely revisions to last three DART readings, on account of E-way bills data which has not been updated since the week ending 27th Feb-22. Overall, growth momentum has held up better than anticipated in the first three weeks of Mar-22, with fading of the Omicron wave and economic activity withstanding the impact of Russia-Ukraine geopolitical tensions. The month saw economic activity soar to the highest level since the onset of the pandemic.

Heading into FY23, we do acknowledge mounting headwinds to growth. After remaining unchanged for nearly 4 months, retail price of petrol and diesel has been revised up by a cumulative Rs 1.6 per litre each, reflecting the beginning of lagged pass-through of elevated global crude oil prices to consumers. On the other hand, the impact of recent volatility in currency and further escalation in input costs is likely to aggravate margin pressures for producers. While we hold our FY23 GDP growth estimate at 7.5%, downside risks to both private consumption and investment are gathering pace (along with exports amidst slowing global growth); though much remains dependent on the severity and longevity of the ongoing geopolitical concerns. The recent surge in COVID infections in Asia and Europe too remain on watch.