The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is exerting a material influence on non-core CPI inflation amidst the sharp ascent in commodity prices. In addition, amidst a normalizing environment as vaccinations gain critical mass and personal mobility soars, core inflation too is likely to remain elevated. This mix of core and non-core price pressures, in a post COVID economy is likely to accord CPI inflation an enduring upside in FY23. We estimate CPI inflation to average in the range 6.1-6.3% in FY23 i.e., above both RBI’s inflation target band (of 2-6%) and its recent upwardly revised estimate of 5.7%. From monetary policy perspective, we argue that policy normalization needs to be slow and gradual to minimize the sacrifice ratio as economic recovery still remains incomplete and uneven. Towards this, in a deviation from classic textbook prescription, a tighter monetary policy will require continued support from fiscal policy to absorb some cost of higher inflation. We are penciling in 75 bps of front-loaded rate hikes for FY23.

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Mar 31, 2022

QuantEco Shots - H1 FY23 g-sec borrowing calendar: The belly dance

As per the g-sec borrowing calendar, the central government will borrow Rs 8.45 tn and Rs 6.18 tn on gross and net basis respectively in H1 FY23. In line with the usual practice of front loading the borrowing program, H1 FY22 would see 59% of full year gross issuances. Expecting a cumulative 50 bps hike in repo rate in FY23, we continue to expect 10Y g-sec yield to move towards 7.25% before the end of FY23. Further, basis the planned pattern of duration supply, we now see possibility of belly of the yield curve moving higher vis-à-vis the short and long ends.