A few ultra-high frequency indicators released so far point towards continuation of healthy momentum. We see an upside risk to NSO’s Q4 FY24 GDP growth estimate of 5.9%, which in turn would impart 20 bps upside to the full year (FY24) GDP growth est. of 7.6%.
Download ReportQuantEco Research || QuantEco Shots - Optimism in ultra-high frequency signals of Q4 economic activity
Although it is early to quantify the Q4 activity performance, few ultra-high frequency indicators released so far point towards continuation of healthy momentum. QuantEco’s Monthly Payments Tracker is estimated to have clocked a growth of ~21% YoY in Mar-24. This pushes the consolidated payments growth to a 7-quarter high of …~20% YoY in Q4 vs. 15.8% in Q3 FY24. Other indicators which suggest an uptick in momentum in Q4 FY24 are the survey-based PMIs for both manufacturing and services. While indicators like petroleum consumption, motor vehicle registrations, and GST revenue collection point towards a mild deceleration in Q4 FY24, the momentum is similar to the one observed during Q1-Q3 FY24. We see an upside risk to NSO’s Q4 FY24 GDP growth estimate of 5.9%, which in turn would impart 20 bps upside to the full year (FY24) GDP growth est. of 7.6%.