Estimates released by NSO show that Q3 FY24 GDP at 8.4% defied expectations of an incremental slowdown and growth for the full year - FY24 was revised up to 7.6%

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Feb 29, 2024

QuantEco Research || Q3 and FY24 GDP - Happy 'Leap' Year!

On this leap day of 2024, the estimates released by NSO for Q1-Q3 FY24 and full year FY24 GDP growth did indeed exhibit strong leaps forward. One, Q3 FY24 GDP at 8.4% defied completely (yet again) expectations of an incremental slowdown. GDP growth for both Q1 and Q2 FY24 got revised upwards, now at 8.2% and 8.1% respectively (vs. 7.8% and 7.6% previously). Growth for FY24 revised up by 30 bps to 7.6% - a sizable upside of 60 bps vis-à-vis FY23 growth. Looking beyond headline numbers, Q3 GDP FY24 did carry the bias of a lofty growth thanks to a stellar upside in net indirect taxes in the quarter, as underscored by GVA growth of 6.5% - a more believable assessment of the state of the economy, moderating from 7.7% in Q2 FY24 – in line with weakness in agriculture value-add and normalisation in services growth on the supply side, with private consumption growth underwhelming on the demand side. We continue to expect GDP growth to moderate in FY25, but to an upwardly revised range of 6.5-6.7% now (from 6.1-6.3% earlier).