India’s CPI inflation nosedived to a record low of 0.25% YoY in Oct-25 from 1.44% in Sep-25.
Download ReportQuantEco Research | Oct-25 CPI - Nosedives to a record low
With Oct-25 CPI print at series low of 0.25%, CPI inflation has remained below the lower policy tolerance threshold of 2% in 3 out of last 4 months and has remained below the 4% target for the ninth consecutive month. The headline print in Oct-25 benefited from a favourable statistical base effect as well as a subdued organic momentum, on account of softness in food prices and GST-related price adjustments. With twelve back-to-back downward surprises in the headline print, the CPI inflation outlook has turned further benign. As such, we revise our FY26 CPI inflation lower to 2.1% from 2.6% earlier. Having said, factors like fading of GST impact after a couple of quarters and fiscal push for domestic consumption (in the form of tax cuts and transfer payments) could start exerting influence on the inflation trajectory over the medium-term.