Growth in industrial production rose in Nov-24 to a 7-month high of 5.2% from an upwardly revised 3.7% in Oct-24
Download ReportQuantEco Research || Nov-24 IIP: Base triggered headline growth
Nov-24 IIP growth adds to the recent spate of data that have shown somewhat better growth, vis-à-vis Q2 FY25. These include core industries, E-way bills, cement production, passenger vehicle sales among others, underscoring that Q2 indeed was a growth trough. Having said, lead indicators paint only a modestly positive upside, as several indicators such as steel consumption, port cargo traffic and PMI manufacturing remain somewhat somber. H2 FY25 should see GDP growth recover, led by a modest recovery in manufacturing, reasonable growth in services and a better-than-trend growth in agriculture. We hold on to our FY25 GDP growth estimate of 6.4% (NSO’s first advance estimate is in line), with H2 growth at 6.7% vs. 6.0% in H1.
Industry growth in FY26 will be premised on the durability of domestic consumption, as well as global outlook. We peg FY26 GDP range forecast at 6.3%-6.7%, similar to as in FY25.