Reversing the declining trend seen in last three months, India's CPI inflation accelerated to 5.55% YoY in Nov-23 from 4.87% in Oct-23.
Download ReportQuantEco Research || Nov-23 CPI inflation - A ‘food-nourished’ spike
Reversing the declining trend seen in last three months, India's CPI inflation accelerated to 5.55% YoY in Nov-23 from 4.87% in Oct-23. While the uptick was expectedly led by food items, fuel and core items continue to provide comfort. We believe food items to continue serving volatility in the near-term on account of weather-related disruptions along with few adverse global factors. This is expected to be mitigated though by government interventions to keep price pressures under check. Looking through food price volatility, we note that inflation moderation is gradually getting entrenched – for the first time in over 5-years, more than 50% of CPI items have recorded annualized inflation within the target band of 2-6%. On a net basis, we maintain our FY24 CPI inflation estimate of 5.5% with the likelihood of further moderation in FY25.