India’s industrial production decelerated to a 5-month low of 1.1% YoY in Mar-23 from 5.8% in Feb-23.

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May 12, 2023

QuantEco Research || Mar-23 IIP - Mixed signals, uneven recovery

Accompanied by a subdued sequential expansion on seasonally adjusted basis, the overall deceleration in India’s industrial production appears broad based. Having said so, the quarterly trend and fiscal year performance remain encouraging. Nevertheless, the recovery continues to remain uneven with outperformance of investment-oriented production witnessing an offsetting impact from consumption-oriented production and labor-intensive sectors. Looking ahead, we expect industrial activity to moderate - in line with our FY24 GDP growth forecast of 6.0% vis-à-vis the estimated growth of 7.0% in FY23.