India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed to a 9-month low of USD 17.5 bn in Jan-24 vis-à-vis USD 19.8 bn in Dec-23
Download ReportQuantEco Research || Jan-24 Merchandise Trade - So far, so good
India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed to a 9-month low of USD 17.5 bn in Jan-24 vis-à-vis USD 19.8 bn in Dec-23. While the trade performance in Jan-24 shows a sequential contraction, it would be premature to ascribe it to the ongoing disruption in the Red Sea region as it is statistically within the usual bounds of seasonal performance, and hence passes the litmus test. Having said so, it is possible for the impact to get reflected with some lag. As such, we will continue to watch the incoming data for both the headline trade performance as well as the change in country level exposures. In the interim, while we maintain our FY24 current account deficit forecast of 1.3% of GDP (USD 47 bn), we acknowledge a downside risk to this estimate.