Q1 FY25 GDP growth at 6.7% was broadly in line with expectations. However, a higher than anticipated (and in fact higher than GDP) GVA growth at 6.8% came as a surprise

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Aug 31, 2024

QuantEco Research || India Q1 FY25 GDP - A better-than-expected start to FY25

Q1 FY25 GDP growth at 6.7% was broadly in line with expectations. Rather, it was the higher than anticipated (and in fact higher than GDP) GVA growth at 6.8% that came as a surprise. Even though it continues to underscore India’s growth resilience, Q1 GVA marked an improvement over Q4 FY24 growth of 6.3% of nearly 50 bps - in a quarter that saw the one-off impact of record-breaking heatwave conditions across the country, lagged and uneven progress of Southwest monsoon in Jun-24 and a decisive slowdown in spending by a poll-bound Government as validated by monthly fiscal data. The strength in growth does perhaps point towards to the possibility of support from a broader private sector capex, states' revex spending along with a nascent pick-up in consumption recovery – all of which augur well for FY25 GDP growth outlook. As such we revise our FY25 GDP growth to 7.0% from 6.8% earlier. Having said, we do see plethora of pulls and pressures manifesting on GDP growth in the remaining three quarters of the fiscal year.