Rainfall performance picked up in Jul-23, after a slow start in Jun-23. Despite the broad comfort on monsoon, inflation pressures have stacked up.
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Aug 08, 2023
QuantEco Research || India Monsoon Update: Rainfall, El Nino & Inflation - Evolving dynamics
Rainfall performance picked up in Jul-23, after a slow start in Jun-23. Despite the broad comfort on monsoon, inflation pressures have stacked up, especially amidst above comfort level readings of CPI inflation over Jun-Jul-23 (Jul-23 CPI to be released on 14th Aug-23 is expected at 6.7%YoY). Tomato dominated inflationary concerns are morphing into broad-based price pressures seen across other food categories such as cereals, milk, spices etc. This has prompted us to revise up our average FY24 CPI inflation forecast by 20 bps to 5.5%.