Southwest monsoon wound up first half of the season impressively, at 6% above LPA as of end Jul-25 on a cumulative basis.
Download ReportQuantEco Research || India Monsoon Update: Half-full and pouring ahead
Standalone, Jul-25 recorded rainfall at 7% above LPA (a tad lower than 9% surplus recorded in Jun-25). Kharif sowing progress has been healthy, with area sown 4.0% higher than last year, with no adverse developments coming to fore. Reservoir levels too continue to remain comfortable, especially in Southern India where rainfall has been sub-par. IMD expects second half of the monsoon season to receive above normal rainfall. This augurs well for crop yields as well as soil moisture for the next Rabi season. Outlook for food inflation remains benign, with headline CPI inflation in Jul-25 likely to print below 1.5%. Keeping in mind the recent downside in inflation as well as a comfortable foreseeable trajectory, we had revised lower our FY26 CPI inflation forecast to 3.0%.