Aug-24 rains may correct spatial skewness
Download ReportQuantEco Research || India Monsoon Update: Aug-24 rains may correct spatial skewness
Southwest monsoon caught up in Jul-24, with rainfall clocking 9% above LPA (Long Period Average) in the month – higher than IMD’s expectation of 6% surplus. July’s outperformance helped turn the season’s cumulative performance from a deficit of 11% as of end Jun-24 to a surplus of 2% as of 31st Jul-24. Despite this, rainfall performance has been highly skewed on a geographical basis in the first half of the monsoon season. The geographical anomalies in rainfall distribution could keep food inflation momentum somewhat elevated until the end of Q2 FY25. The impact of which however will be masked on the headline CPI inflation amidst a highly favourable base from last year. We can expect some softening in food inflation Q3 FY25 onwards, as Kharif output comes on board and above normal rains in Sep-24 (along with La Nina thereafter) set the stage favourably for Rabi sowing.