India Economic Outlook
Download ReportQuantEco Research || India Macrobook - Mar-25
Economic momentum to broadly remain on track on the back of ongoing rural recovery and support to urban consumption via tax relief announced in the budget accompanied by lower inflation. Government led capex is expected to continue. We maintain our FY26 GDP growth forecast of 6.7% with risk of global volatility in the wake of tariff wars on watch. Inflation trajectory for FY26 appears broadly comfortable, as of now. We expect CPI inflation to ease to 4.3% in FY26 from 4.7% in FY25. After pivoting in Feb-25, we expect the MPC to announce another 25 bps rate cut in its upcoming policy review in Apr-25 with a room for an additional 25 bps in H1FY26. We maintain our 10Y g-sec yield forecast 6.40% by Mar-26. We maintain our call of a minor BoP surplus in FY26 amidst an uncertain trade outlook and weakness in foreign investment inflows. We maintain our USDINR call of 89.5 by Mar-26