Economic Outlook
Download ReportQuantEco Research || India Macrobook Jun-24
Core Views: We continue to expect FY25 GVA and GDP growth at 6.6% and 6.8% respectively. The overall growth momentum likely to stay close to its medium-term trend, with support from the likelihood of a surplus monsoon this year. We maintain our forecast of CPI inflation at 4.5% in FY25 vs. 5.4% in FY24. We retain our expectation of monetary policy easing from the RBI beginning with 25 bps in Oct-24, followed by another 25 bps cut in Feb-25. We hold on to our 10Y g-sec yield forecast of 6.75% (before Mar-25).We maintain our FY25 call on the Indian rupee, with the currency likely to see an encore, i.e., mild depreciation coupled with low volatility. We expect the RBI to continue leaning on the side of reserve accumulation while opportunistically addressing covering up for rupee’s overvaluation. We continue to expect USDINR to move towards 84.5 levels by Mar-25.