The Middle East crisis that had eased through Jun-26 has turned unpredictable again with the geopolitical risk now the single largest swing factor for India's macro outlook. The last two weeks of July saw wild gyrations — Brent swung between a low of USD 68.5 pb and a high of USD 105.3 pb. We retain our FY27 average Brent assumption at USD 80–85 pb, while flagging clear two-sided risk around this call. We hold FY27 GDP growth at 6.4% vs. 7.7% in FY26. Urban consumption has stayed broadly resilient. Exports remain a structural bright spot, with shipments to the world ex-US growing ~21% in Q1, aided by geographical diversification, signing of new-age FTAs, and a relatively favourable position under the new US Section 301 tariffs, where India faces the lower tiered tariff rate of 10%.The bigger near-term risk has shifted decisively to the monsoon. The IMD’s expects the seasonal rainfall deficiency at 10%, raising the risk of weaker rural demand (already visible in two-wheeler and tractor trends) through Q2–Q4 FY27 and adding to food-inflation pressure. On inflation, we hold our FY27 CPI projection at 5.1% vs. 2.1% of FY26 — even as Q1 FY27 CPI averaged 3.9%, 30 bps below the RBI's 4.2% estimate. The hardening from here reflects the energy; a deficient monsoon that could fuel food inflation; and an unfavourable statistical base and the lagged pass-through of past Rupee depreciation. On the external front, assuming Brent at USD 80–85 pb, we see the FY27 current account deficit widening modestly to 0.9% of GDP  and the BoP swinging to a USD 70 bn surplus, from a USD 24 bn deficit in FY26. India has so far received USD ~32 bn. We continue to expect close to USD 75 bn by Dec-26, of forex debt inflows under the special schemes announced by the RBI in Jun-26.. With the RBI absorbing the BoP surplus and the USD remaining firm on prospective Fed hikes, we now see USDINR at 97 by Mar-27 (revised from 95 earlier).On rates, we expect the MPC to begin a modest normalization, lifting the repo rate by 25–50 bps to 5.50–5.75% in H2 FY27. For g-secs, robust FPI debt inflows (USD 8.4 bn over Jun–Jul) and a positive BoP outlook are supportive. However, a backloaded increase in inflation, fiscal challenges spilling over to FY28, is likely to push the 10Y g-sec yield towards 7.25% by Mar-27.