The NSO (National Statistical Office) projects India’s FY25 GDP growth to decelerate to 6.4% - a 4-year low, from 8.2% in FY24, exactly in line with our projection.
Download ReportQuantEco Research || India FY25 GDP FAE - An outsized H1 drag
The growth moderation is expected to be led by industrial activity (on the supply side) and investment growth (on the demand side). In contrast, private consumption (on the demand side) and agriculture (on the supply side) are estimated to drive the upside. This reinforces our expectation of a gradual revival in rural consumption, a trend that is firmly underway. As such, against H1 FY25 real GDP growth of 6.0%YoY, the advance estimates imply a higher H2 FY25 growth of 6.7%. Q3 FY25 is likely to have benefitted from festive season buoyancy, while Q4 FY25 growth is likely to get a back-loaded government capex driven fillip. As such, we maintain our FY25 GDP growth of 6.4%.