India’s Southwest monsoon season, which runs from Jun-Sep, was ‘Above Normal’, recording a cumulative rainfall at 108% of LPA this year.
Download ReportQuantEco Research || India 2025 Monsoon update: More rains, Less balance
This year’s rainfall was the 5th highest since 2001. E&NE region received deficit rainfall in each of the monsoon months. In contrast, NW received excess rainfall in every month. Rainfall over the Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ), which consists of most of the rain-fed agriculture regions in the country, was at 122% of LPA. Of the 36 sub-divisions, 33 received more than normal rainfall – covering 91% of the country’s area. The 3 subdivisions which received deficient rainfall were - Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, and Bihar. The year also experienced several intense episodes of rainfall, albeit lower in count vis-à-vis 2024.
Monsoon performance augured well for Kharif sowing, though excessive rains in Western and Eastern parts of the country in Sep-25 have inflicted damage to standing crops in several areas. This could lead to downward revision to the record crop estimate for Kharif season. We will keep a close watch on the intensity of these short duration price pressures, as supplies adjust with Kharif harvest likely to hit the market in Oct-25. We retain our downwardly revised FY26 average CPI inflation forecast of 2.6% from 3.0% earlier. The YTD comfort on food prices as well GST rate rationalization had prompted the downward adjustment (effected mid Sep-25).