India’s balance of payments registered a surplus of USD 2.9 bn in Jun-26 vs. a deficit of USD 0.4 in Jun-25
Download ReportQuantEco Research | Balance of Payments | Jun-26 | Geopolitics and policy interventions
The capital account within BoP did the heavy lifting in Jun-26, while the current account came under renewed pressure from a widening merchandise trade gap. Encouragingly, India’s traditional shock absorbers — services exports and remittances — continued to provide meaningful support, keeping the current account deficit relatively contained at 0.3% in Q1 FY27. The resilience, however, rests on a somewhat narrow base. A revival in maritime trade in the Gulf region and inventory replenishment, sticky non-energy commodity prices, elevated freight costs and resilient domestic demand could keep the import bill under pressure in the coming months. At the same time, the exceptional strength in remittances seen earlier in the crisis is beginning to normalise, suggesting that this cushion may become less powerful going forward. On the other hand, the Basic BoP remains in surplus, while the coordinated policy response to attract foreign currency inflows is transmitting faster and more forcefully than anticipated. Notwithstanding the early closure of the special window for FCNR(B) deposits, we believe the cumulative flows (inclusive of OFCBs and ECBs) could potentially touch USD 85 bn by Dec-26 vs. our earlier estimate of USD 75 bn. This provides an important counterweight to lingering geopolitical and trade-related risks and reinforces our comfort with India’s external-sector outlook. Assuming crude at USD 80-85 pb, we maintain our FY27 forecasts for the current account deficit at 0.9% of GDP (USD 36 bn) and an overall BoP surplus of USD 70 bn.