India’s merchandise trade deficit rose to a 10-month high of USD 29.7 bn in Aug-24 from USD 23.6 bn in Jul-24

Download Report
Sep 18, 2024

QuantEco Research || Aug-24 Merchandise Trade - Deficit zooms sharply

India’s merchandise trade deficit rose to a 10-month high of USD 29.7 bn in Aug-24 from USD 23.6 bn in Jul-24. Despite a moderation in the oil trade deficit to a 36-month low, the sequential widening of merchandise trade deficit was predominantly led by gems and jewellery, along with a minor impact from miscellaneous products and electronic items. India’s merchandise trade deficit is depicting signs of a moderate widening on FYTD basis. While this is broadly in line with our expectation, the anticipated upside risks with respect to changes in the custom duties appear to be taking shape. As for now, we maintain our FY25 current account deficit forecast of 0.9% of GDP (vs. 0.7% in FY24). However, we are cognizant of the upside risks from both domestic as well as global factors and will be fine tuning our estimate later in the month.