India’s merchandise trade deficit rose to a 5-month high of USD 26.4 bn in Apr-25 from USD 21.5 bn in Mar-25
Download ReportQuantEco Research || Apr-25 Merchandise Trade - A cautious improvement
India’s merchandise trade deficit rose to a 5-month high of USD 26.4 bn in Apr-25 from USD 21.5 bn in Mar-25. This was driven by a sequential increase in imports even as exports moderated after the ramp up seen in Mar-25. For FY26, global geopolitics and geoeconomics will determine the course of India’s external trade. Prices of crude oil and precious metals have shown divergent behaviour in recent months. More importantly, after unleashing heightened tariff uncertainty, the US is showing signs of de-escalation by giving temporary reprieve windows on reciprocal tariffs – this period is likely to be used for trade negotiations. Meanwhile, India announced its FTA with the UK earlier this month and is reportedly making fast progress on the BTA with the US. In the interim, the specter of tariff uncertainty continues to linger. We retain our FY26 current account deficit forecast of 0.8% of GDP (USD 33 bn) for now.