India’s CPI inflation decelerated to a 69-month low of 3.16% YoY in Apr-25 from 3.34% in Mar-25.
Download ReportQuantEco Research || Apr-25 CPI inflation: Summer of comfort
India’s CPI inflation decelerated to a 69-month low of 3.16% YoY in Apr-25 from 3.34% in Mar-25. This marks the sixth back-to-back downward surprise in the CPI data release and the third consecutive data print undershooting the 4% target mark. Notwithstanding weather shocks having played a spoilsport in recent years, the outlook appears comfortable amidst robust progress for zaid crop sowing and an expectation of a normal monsoon outturn in FY26. Meanwhile, the upside risk to inflation stemming from the government’s recently announced price hike for LPG cylinder along with cascading impact of INR depreciation on imported inflation would find an offsetting impact coming from softness in international commodity prices. Considering a multitude of factors and their associated risks, we revise lower our FY26 CPI inflation forecast to 3.8% from 4.1% earlier. If realized, this would mark the third instance of annual headline inflation undershooting the target since the operationalization of the current inflation targeting regime.