India’s CPI inflation moderated a tad to a 6-month low of 4.83% YoY in Apr-24 from 4.85% in Mar-24
Download ReportQuantEco Research || Apr-24 CPI - Stable and comfortable
India’s CPI inflation moderated a tad to a 6-month low of 4.83% YoY in Apr-24 from 4.85% in Mar-24. The broader narrative of deflation in fuel prices, record low core inflation, and sticky and elevated food inflation continues to prevail. While various metrics of inflation capture a comforting trend from different perspectives, there are risks on the horizon. Volatility in food prices, firming up of international commodity prices, and ongoing disruptions in maritime trade routes in the Middle East region makes one cautious. In the meanwhile, we note that the threat of a severe heatwave has not played out in a disruptive manner so far. More importantly, the likelihood of surplus rainfall in the upcoming south-west monsoon season makes one hopeful of a moderation in food inflation after Q1 FY25. We maintain our FY25 CPI inflation forecast of 4.5% vs. 5.4% in FY24.