India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed to a 20-month low of USD 15.2 bn in Apr-23 from USD 18.6 bn in Mar-23
Download ReportQuantEco Research || Apr-23 Merchandise Trade - Deficit remains on a muted path
India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed to a 20-month low of USD 15.2 bn in Apr-23 from USD 18.6 bn in Mar-23. While both exports and imports showed a seasonal sequential decline usually seen at the start of the financial year, moderation in the trade deficit was led by a relatively faster decline in imports. Taking into consideration the ongoing moderation in monthly trade deficit numbers, softness in international commodity prices, and anticipation of a slower growth momentum, we continue to expect below consensus current account deficit of USD 53 bn (1.4% of GDP) in FY24. While it is early to ascribe risks to these forecasts, statistically, the likelihood of some downside risk cannot be dismissed.