Our proprietary DART (Daily Activity and Recovery Tracker) Index for the week ending 24th Oct-21 slipped marginally from a post pandemic high at 114.7 of last week. The index contracted by 1.5%WoW compared to last week's mild gain of 0.6%; with the breadth of recovery narrowing.
Download ReportQuantEco DART Index Economic activity retracts
Economic activity in Oct-21 has continued to forge ahead aided by the low run-rate of COVID cases, continued easing of lockdown restrictions and progress on vaccination. Last week, India attained the milestone of administering 1 bn doses – the second country only to have achieved this feat after China. The vaccination pace though has been slower in Oct-21, averaging at 5.6 mn a day compared to over 8 mn in Sep-21.
Overall, after bottoming out in May-21, DART index has risen by nearly 9.0% above the Feb-21 peak, though the pace of incremental gains has eased with each passing month. Recall, the index had surpassed the baseline of 100 in Jul-21 and the Feb-21 level in Aug-21, and since then has successively moved higher each month, despite weekly gyrations.
We hold on to our FY22 GDP growth estimate of 10% with mild downside risks, amidst a steady recovery in consumption taking shape, along with continued strength in exports led by global growth recovery and broadly accommodative monetary and fiscal policies. We however remain watchful of supply-side disruptions that could potentially weigh on growth prospects emerging from global energy crisis, domestic coal and semi-conductor shortages.