Our proprietary DART (Daily Activity and Recovery Tracker) Index estimates economic activity to have increased marginally for the week ending 1st Aug-21.
Download ReportQuantEco DART Index Economic activity recoups previous week's loss
After seeing a quick recovery over Jun-21 and at a slower increment in Jul-21, economic activity appears to be oscillating around the baseline now. In the absence of any strong foreseeable triggers in the near term, we expect this trend to continue over the month of Aug-21. On COVID infections, we remain watchful, as after a gap of nearly 78 days, daily active COVID cases have turned positive (on 7-DMA basis).
Vaccine effectiveness getting validated in select DMs by low mortality/hospitalisation rates despite the surge in Delta variant, offers hope. India has vaccinated nearly 27% of its population with one dose, and 8% with both; with the daily pace of vaccinations picking up last week to 5.3 mn doses compared to ~4.0 mn over the previous week. Vaccine supply is expected to improve somewhat, while this would impart a modest uptick in momentum, supplies need to ramp up at a faster pace to reach herd immunity levels as soon as possible.