Our proprietary DART (Daily Activity and Recovery Tracker) Index continues to remain in its eighth consecutive week of expansion
Download ReportQuantEco DART Index Economic activity nearing Feb-21 peak
Our proprietary DART (Daily Activity and Recovery Tracker) Index continues to remain in its eighth consecutive week of expansion, with the index now only ~5% below Feb-21 peak. For the week ending 11th Jul-21, the index climbed to 97.9 from 94.0 previously, to record a WoW rise of 4.1% compared to upwardly revised 6.2% in the previous week. However, at a granular level, there remains unevenness in recovery.
Successive DART readings may exhibit a levelling off of incremental recovery in Q2 FY22 amidst impending threat of virus variants and consumption seeing a drawn out recovery. The average daily pace of vaccinations slipping in H1 Jul-21 from a peak of 6.2 mn in last week of Jun-21 is concerning, as acceleration in vaccinations has the potential to set the stage for a stronger sequential growth rebound Q3 FY22 onwards. We estimate that a pace 6 mn doses/day could allow single-dose population coverage to rise towards 60% before 2021 end, creating a demand biased in favor of ‘experiences’ more than goods in line with global experience. We hold on to our FY22 GDP growth estimate of 10.0%, as added tailwinds from a normal monsoon, global recovery push to exports and conducive fiscal and monetary policies support.