Our proprietary DART (Daily Activity and Recovery Tracker) Index for the week ending 26th Sep-21 rose marginally to 110.9 (vs. 109.6 previously) continuing to remain at a post pandemic peak. On a WoW basis, the index rose 1.2% compared to previous week's gain of 0.6% (revised up from a contraction of 0.5%)
Download ReportQuantEco DART Index Economic activity crawls higher, consolidates in Sep-21
Economic recovery remained intact in Sep-21, taking forward gains clocked in Aug-21 when the DART index had crossed the baseline of 100 and attained a post-pandemic peak. Not surprisingly, while the incremental gains were marginal, the onset of the festive season pulled the DART index higher to fresh post-pandemic peaks in three of the four weeks of Sep-21. The upside was predominantly led by mobility indicators of – Traffic congestion, Rail Passenger and Apple Driving trends. This was supported by COVID cases continuing to remain benign with vaccinations recording a strong catch-up.
From growth perspective, premised on the sequential recovery underscored by the DART index in Q2 FY22, India’s GDP level is estimated to return to the pre-pandemic level in Q3 FY22. The imminent pent-up demand for goods and vengeance demand for services driven by the festive season and vaccination pivot, global growth led export momentum along with accommodative fiscal and monetary policy reinforce our full year growth forecast of 10% with mild downside risks.