QuantEco's DART (Daily Activity and Recovery Tracker) Index for week ending 31st Oct-21 was little changed from previous week, substantiating the economic recovery in the festive dominated month of Oct-21.
Download ReportQuantEco DART Index Economic activity almost unchanged
The festive season has served as an “additional kicker’ for recovery in economic activity to continue into Oct-21 aided by low run-rate of COVID cases, easing of lockdown restrictions and progress on vaccination. So far, India has fully/partially vaccinated 78% and 38% respectively of the adult population; on track to achieve near full coverage of the first dose by the end of the year as per our estimates.
Recall, after bottoming out in May-21, DART index has risen by nearly 10% above the Feb-21 peak, though the pace of incremental gains has eased with each passing month. It will be interesting to see the momentum, sustenance and the drivers of recovery over the remainder of Q3 and Q4 FY22 in the context of – 1) The recent rebound in contact services and 2) Supply side disruptions and 3) Rise in commodity prices including crude oil. For now, we hold on to our FY22 GDP growth estimate of 10% with mild downside risks; amidst tailwinds from a steady recovery in consumption, continued strength in exports led by global growth recovery and broadly accommodative monetary and fiscal policies.