The sharp deceleration in India’s GDP growth in Q4 FY22 to 4.1% YoY from 5.4% in previous quarter reflects the role of adverse statistical base
Download ReportQ4 FY22 GDP - Bumpy road ahead
The sharp deceleration in India’s GDP growth in Q4 FY22 to 4.1% YoY from 5.4% in previous quarter reflects the role of adverse statistical base since most of the drivers saw a healthy sequential expansion despite the overhang of the Omicron wave. Going forward, while the advent of monsoon bodes well, external risk in the form of geopolitical uncertainty and the accompanying terms of trade shock, has worsened in last 1-month. We believe this would weigh upon India’s growth momentum amidst an environment of tightening of financial conditions, globally as well as domestically. As such, we mark down our estimate for FY23 GDP growth to 7.0% from 7.3% (with downside risk) earlier.