India Q1FY23 GDP growth galloped into double-digits, coming in at 13.5% compared to 4.1% in Q4 FY22
Download ReportQ1 FY23 GDP - Decoding the bounce
India Q1FY23 GDP growth galloped into double-digits, coming in at 13.5% compared to 4.1% in Q4 FY22. However, the print surprised on the downside with our own estimate pegged at 15.0%, market consensus (Refinitiv) at 15.2% and RBI at 16.2%. Q1 FY23 growth bounce was largely owing to a low base from last year’s Delta wave (concentrated in Q1 FY22), as it more than offset the 9.6% sequential contraction (i.e., QoQ) in the quarter. At a broad macro level, India’s economic activity navigated an uncertain global economic environment with resilience. Going forward, economic activity is expected to benefit from improving vaccination coverage, headline monsoon support, government’s relentless capex push, and recent moderation in international commodity prices. However, spill over risks from the anticipated slowdown in global demand could weigh upon domestic growth momentum in H2 FY23. This could impart a mild downside bias to our full year GDP growth estimate of 7.0%.