Growth in India’s industrial production moderated in Jul-22 to a four-month low of 2.4%YoY, coming in below expectations
Download ReportJul-22 IIP - Sobering down
Growth in India’s industrial production moderated in Jul-22 to a four-month low of 2.4%YoY, coming in below expectations (QuantEco Research: 4.9%, Reuters consensus: 4.3%). The slowdown was owing to a sequential deceleration in momentum by 2.7%MoM (in contrast to historical seasonal expansion of 0.1% typically seen in the month of July in pre-COVID years); though growth did find some support from a waning favourable base. Overall, the downside in industry growth in FY23 will to a large extent get offset by the recovery in services, in a post COVID world. Activity in contact-intensive services is yet to attain pre-pandemic level in several sub-sectors such as tourism, hospitality, dining out etc. As such, we maintain our FY23 GDP growth estimate of 7.0% with downside risks.