Nov-22 Macrobook - Economic outlook

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Nov 29, 2022

India Macrobook Nov-22

FY23 GDP growth call maintained at 6.8%; FY23 CPI inflation forecast maintained at 6.7%; FY23 current account deficit and Net BoP position estimates maintained at USD 130 bn and USD -50 bn respectively (with risk of a somewhat narrower deficit); We expect 35 bps of hike in repo rate in Dec-22 MPC review; We expect 10Y g-sec yield to trade between 7.20-7.60% range in the remainder of FY23; We maintain our USDINR call of 84 (with downside risk) before the end of FY23 amidst BoP pressure and broad-based dollar strength.