Jul-22 Macrobook - Economic outlook
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Jul 29, 2022
India Macrobook Jul-22
FY23 GDP growth call maintained at 7.0% with possibility of some downside risk; FY23 CPI inflation forecast maintained at 6.5% with support from moderation in global commodity prices and pick up in monsoon; Estimates for FY23 current account deficit and Net BoP position maintained at USD 105 bn and USD -35 bn respectively;We expect 100 bps of cumulative hike in repo rate, out of which 40-50 bps hike is likely to happen in Aug-22 policy review; We expect 10Y g-sec yield to move up towards 8.00% before the end of FY23 (growing risk of global recession could provide a downside risk); We maintain our USDINR call of 81 before the end of FY23 amidst BoP pressure and broad-based dollar strength.