QuantEco's DART (Daily Activity and Recovery Tracker) Index for week ending 13th Mar-22 remained at a post-pandemic peak for the fourth consecutive reading, solidifying gains to rise to 127.3 vs. 124.9 previously.
Download ReportDART index: Remains at a record high
QuantEco’s DART (Daily Activity and Recovery Tracker) Index for week ending 13th Mar-22 remained at a post-pandemic peak for the fourth consecutive reading, solidifying gains to rise to 127.3 vs. 124.9 previously. On a WoW basis, the index climbed up by 2.0% from an upwardly revised 1.6% of last week (prior: 1.3%).
It is comforting to note that economic activity continues to consolidate gains post the Omicron wave, and so far has withstood the impact of geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine. While the pace of incremental improvement has waned over the last three weeks, the level of economic activity has attained higher record highs in the post-pandemic era. Having said so, we flag downside risks to growth heading into FY23 stemming from the sharp escalation in commodity prices including crude oil, and an accompanying slowdown in global growth momentum. If crude price was to average at close to USD 100 pb in FY23, it could push CPI inflation in the range of 6.1-6.3% in FY23 as per our estimates. The double whammy of price pressures weighing on household disposable incomes and raw material costs for industry, could prolong the recovery anticipated in private consumption and investments both. Further, exports could face added downward pressure amidst slowing global growth momentum. The resurgence of COVID cases in China, Hong Kong and elsewhere remain on watch.
As such, our FY23 GDP growth forecast of 7.5% could see some downward adjustment. The extent of the revision will depend on the longevity of both geopolitical tensions and elevated commodity prices.