QuantEco's DART (Daily Activity and Recovery Tracker) Index for week ending 13th Feb-22 posted its fourth weekly rise. On WoW basis, the pace of improvement however eased to 3.6% versus 7.1% in the previous week (revised up from 5.7%).
Download ReportDART index: Economic activity nearly back at pre Omicron levels
QuantEco’s DART (Daily Activity and Recovery Tracker) Index for week ending 13th Feb-22 posted its fourth weekly rise. On WoW basis, the pace of improvement however eased to 3.6% versus 7.1% in the previous week (revised up from 5.7%).
The Omicron led swing in economic activity appears to have lived its course over a short span of 7-8 weeks. To our minds, this reflects the pandemic acquiring a more FIFO i.e., Fast-in Fast-out character with reduced economic costs. This is also seen in Mobility including travel, Traffic congestion and Services-oriented sectors leading the downfall in activity (amidst imposition of restrictions) and also the recovery thereafter. Industrial activity indicators such as E-way bills, Electivity generation and Rail freight on the other hand have displayed greater resilience to pandemic induced swings. Nature of restrictions imposed along with progress on vaccinations both have been defining factors in this respect.
From a growth perspective, economic activity is broadly expected to get evened out over the months of Jan-Feb-22. For Mar-22, year-end seasonality typically seen in activity indicators and government spending may push the DART index to new highs. Having said so, the surge in crude oil prices and elevated CPI inflation may weigh on consumption recovery. Given the revision to FY20 and FY21 GDP data, our FY22 GDP growth estimate stands adjusted lower to 9.2%. For FY23, we are retaining our growth estimate of 7.5% for now.